Crime in Warren

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robberyThere is probably no topic in Warren that induces a more emotional response than that of crime. Few people have no opinion on whether it’s getting worse, getting better or slipping sideways. We’ve been meaning to address it here for some time but finding reliable statistics is harder than you might imagine, and being able to compare data from one place to another is harder yet.

But in these cold and snowy days we’ve finally committed enough time researching the topic to shed some meaningful light on the where we stand. We are not experts at this sort of thing, so if what is presented today fails to hit the bull’s eye we will keep digging for some enlightenment from the numbers. These statistics come directly from the FBI database. We made no changes to them. If you don’t believe them please take it up with J. Edgar Hoover or whoever is currently in charge of domestic spying.

Presentation1In the first chart we see the number of violent crimes reported in Warren and six other Ohio cities of similar size and demographics during the time period 2006-2012.

Keep in mind that these are the raw numbers of violent crimes (murder, rape, assault, etc.) and not the crime rate (usually expressed as the number of crimes per thousand people), which is a fairer way to compare cities.

Warren is the smallest city on the list, but that said, we have experienced the largest reduction in reported violent crime in this seven year period — nearly 60%. The data may be easier you understand looking at the following chart. (No data is available for Euclid in ’11 and ’12 for unexplained reasons.)

Violent crime total
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Warren  696 508 392 311 263 258 279 -59.9%
Canton  813 762 699 683 652 810 729 -10.3%
Euclid 207 201 174 197 135
Mansfield 221 163 183 165 158 171 178 -19.5%
Lorain  294 328 361 395 343 318 325 10.5%
Youngstown 992 815 735 859 694 619 684 -31.0%
Springfield  535 461 319 467 480 390 373 -30.3%
Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics – UCR Data Online
http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/

 

The final chart (below) looks at the per capita violent crime rate among this group of cities. Warren ranks a distant third — well below Canton and Youngstown — but more violent than the rest of the pack.

population violent crimes rate*
Warren 41 279 6.8
Canton 73 729 10.0
Mansfield 48 178 3.7
Lorain 64 325 5.1
Youngstown 67 684 10.2
Springfield 60 373 6.2
FBI data for 2012
population x 1000
* rate = violent crimes per 1000 population

 

This all begs the question of meaning, and we don’t have a clear answer. We suspect that the actual number of violent crimes and the crime rate relative to other cities is lower than many Warren residents would guess. We are not dismissing the problem; everyone can agree that crime in Warren is a problem. Our hope is that having actual data might make for a more meaningful discussion. We will continue to explore and report.

Posted Thursday, February 20th, 2014 under Crime.

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